As of 15 March 2026
The Sensex today stands at 74,563, nearly the same level it was two years ago in March 2024. Even over a five‑year period since March 2021 (Sensex ~49,800), the index has delivered around 8.3% CAGR, decent, but not reflective of a typical “high‑risk, high‑return” equity cycle.
This stagnation comes during a period of heightened geopolitical tensions. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas crisis, and ongoing regional disruptions, the recent escalation in the Middle East has had a more direct impact on global economic stability. The region accounts for over 40% of global oil shipments and nearly three‑quarters of Asia’s energy supply, making the current situation particularly significant.
When the conflict intensified, crude oil prices spiked from the mid‑$60 range to above $100, putting immediate pressure on oil-importing countries like India, which relies on imports for nearly 90% of its energy needs.
Why Oil Matters for India
When global oil prices rise:
- India pays more dollars for the same quantity of oil.
- This widens the trade deficit, leading to rupee depreciation.
- A weaker rupee makes all imports costlier, further pushing inflation higher.
Higher fuel prices > higher transportation & power costs > higher production costs > higher prices for consumers.
This inflationary spiral often forces central banks to raise interest rates, making loans costlier and slowing demand, a cycle that impacts corporate earnings and, ultimately, the stock market.
Is the Market Correction Healthy?
The gradual decline in the Indian market is not entirely negative. Valuations in 2024 were stretched. The combination of:
- geopolitical pressures
- policy changes in the US
- global tariff shocks
has helped cool down overheated valuations.
We are not fully at “cheap” levels yet, but we’re moving toward long‑term averages. Historically, attractive entry points never come with good news, whether it was 2008 (Global Financial Crisis) or 2020 (Covid outbreak).
Where Do Things Stand Today?
The outlook remains uncertain until the geopolitical situation stabilizes. As long as oil remains above $100, pressure on global and Asian economies will continue.
In such environments, human behavior tends to extrapolate today’s bad news far into the future. But history consistently shows that markets recover once normalcy returns.
So What Should Investors Do? Or Rather What NOT to do ?
1. Do NOT panic sell.
Your portfolio may be in the red today, but selling converts temporary losses into permanent ones. Recoveries tend to be sharp and unexpected. Selling and sitting on cash has a high risk of sitting on sidelines and not participate back towards normalcy.
2. Do NOT stop your SIPs.
Investing regularly during corrections contributes disproportionately to long‑term returns. People who have seen previous corrections would vouch that their biggest gains came from money invested in those times.
3. Do NOT touch your emergency fund.
Keep it safe and liquid to protect yourself in case of unforeseen events.
4. Do NOT rush to invest everything at once.
Markets may remain volatile. Keep some liquidity to take advantage of future opportunities. Stay balanced.
Concluding Thoughts
I’ve personally experienced the 2008 crash, the 2020 pandemic collapse, and several corrections in between. Each one felt uncomfortable in the moment, but they all passed, and markets recovered strongly afterward.
Whether 2026 will be a shallow correction or a deeper one remains to be seen, but the long-term principle remains unchanged:
This too shall pass.
If you are feeling anxious or need to discuss your portfolio, please reach out. We’re here to help you navigate through uncertainty with clarity and confidence.