On behalf of the team at Banyan Financial Advisors, I would like to wish all of our readers, clients and contacts a very Happy New Year. Hopefully 2013 would bring a lot more certainty to our lives, prosperity and wisdom. If we look back on what we went through in 2012, I am sure we deserve a good holiday and enjoyment for the arrival of another year. Till a fortnight back, there was so much uncertainty about end of the world – people even forgot that there would be a 2013. But see, we are in the new year and all the scare mongering by our media partners have vanished in the air.
It was some kind of a bumpy ride in 2012 starting with a lot of negative news owing to the onset of terrible euro crises and back to back sovereign defaults. A never to be seen down grade of AAA rated western countries became a regular news flow. Gold shot up to its life time high and cooling slightly by year end. Oil prices had a yo-yo ride. Our political system went through an upheaval with a lot of protests followed up by historical action by our esteemed politicians who passed some land mark bills like clearing up of FDI in retail sector. Unfortunately it also had a black spot of a gang rape which can never be forgotten. God bless the soul !
What to expect in 2013
2013 may be a difficult year to look into predict considering a lot of good things going in the pipeline to mitigate the damage caused in the financial crises. A few things which are notable before the start of the year are :
Interest rates are on a down trend and it is quite possible that banks would slash interest rates on loans as well as deposits. The extent of the decline can be between 1% and 3%. Outcomes of such a decline would be reduction in loan payments resulting in increased spending power of the consumers as well as reduced costs for the businesses.
Rally of stock markets is being forecasted by a lot of brokerage houses. I somehow believe in their forecasts as a lot of positive news is in the financial system. A down trend of interest rates would possibly fuel a good rally and I am hopeful that by end of 2013 we may be sitting at an average gain of 15-20% on our equity portfolio.
Rise of uncertainty on 2014 elections – A year before the election has always been a no radical year from policy action perspective. In order to appease the voters our political parties may want to come up with a lot of favours but their hands may be tied owing to India’s massive fiscal deficit. Any policy action to cut any taxes would be resulting in a negative impact on the country’s external credibility and hence I would be very watchful of the budget in 2013.
I am hopeful that inflation may start inching lower from where it stands today or atleast won’t go higher.
A couple of places to watch out would be oil, gold prices, India’s exchange rate and external credit rating.
In the end, it would be my sincere advice to all my readers – MAINTAIN your patience towards the financial markets. You have done brilliantly well so far and have seen green ticks on your portfolio by end of 2012. I hope my advice as mentioned in my 2012 year end blog paid off. For those who couldn’t keep up with their investments and ended up exiting from the financial markets, you guys still have a chance. Just start investing in the new year with a resolution of maintaining your patience, committment and an investment horizon of long term. Combination of these three factors would definitely pay off in the long run ! There would be unavoidable bumps – some small and some large, but each bump should help you to invest more for your future. Keep your nerves relaxed and feel free to contact us when you need any advice. We are always there to massage stressed nerves when they need some relaxation.
And if you want you can subscribe to our blog to get a regular feed of latest updates and investment advice. I believe that an informed investor is better geared to handle his finances ! At Banyan we have put in a significant effort and commitment throughout 2012 to publish over 60 quality financial articles with over 50,000 views in just 1 year. We feel it as a remarkable achievement considering we didn’t go for any advertisements to market our blog.
Enjoy the new year celebrations and have fun !